Wimbledon 2018 – Betting Against Roger Federer

Statistics count for a lot in tennis. A lot of serious punters, those that live and breathe betting on sports, will use data to decide how to place their money. They look at the history, the precedence, the surface, the temperature, the first serve percentage, the record in five sets, the record in three. That’s understandable – it’s how they get ahead of the bookmakers.

However, there is also the emotional side of the game, the intangible concepts that make us all love the sport of tennis. Consider Andy Murray on Centre Court at Wimbledon, visibly willing the crowd to give him an extra few percent to carry him through a match. Or, the crumbling of a player’s game and confidence the moment she seems to realise that it is Serena Williams facing her on the other side of the court.

Federer looks a little short in the latest Wimbledon betting odds

Emotions sometimes filter into betting odds as well, and it is one the reasons for casual punters to be concerned ahead of Wimbledon 2018. Roger Federer has been installed as 7/4 favourite with the majority of major bookmakers to win his 9th championship at the All England Club. While the current world number one has been imperious in recent months and deserves to be favourite, the price looks a little short for a number of reasons.

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With all due respect to Federer, his renaissance at the grand old age of 36 has coincided with the injury issues of the other members of the Big 4. That is not meant to take anything away from the great man, but one should ask if his big tournament record (three of the last five Grand Slams) would be as excellent had Murray or Djokovic been fully fit over the last 12 months or so?

Murray, Djokovic available at bargain prices due to injury concerns

There is, perhaps, no point speculating about hypotheticals. But, what is clear, is that Federer is a short-priced favourite for Wimbledon. Compare those odds of 7/4 to the best prices for Djokovic (9/1), Murray (10/1) and Nadal (10/1). You can see the value in looking at the other Big 4 members, because, if fully fit, they would rightly be much closer to Federer. At the moment though, these look like bargain prices, especially when you can get free bets and offers when you bet on Wimbledon with Freebets.co.uk, who will also keep you up to date with the crucial stats for the tournament.

Keep an eye on the news from the Murray and Djokovic camps before betting

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You see, if you look at one way, the statistics say that Federer has won eight out of the last fifteen Wimbledon Championships. So, in that respect, odds of 7/4 look very generous when data probability would suggest it should be less than evens. However, you could also look at it and see he has won just one of the last five, with both Murray and Djokovic winning two each in that time. That would suggest odds of 4/1 in terms of pure probability.

The point of this is quite simple – the injuries to the top players in the men’s game have somewhat skewed the perceptions of Federer and, by consequence, the odds of his main rivals. There is, of course, every chance the brilliant Swiss can reinforce his legend with that 9th title on the grass courts of SW19. The only thing is though, he may be priced a little short to do so.