It is difficult to make Wimbledon selections too far in advance. The brevity of the grass court season – the leading players generally only use Queens, Eastbourne and Halle to warm-up for SW19 – means punters must use form from the just finished clay court season as a guide, which is difficult due to the huge difference between clay and grass.
The slowest and fastest surfaces can make or break the games of some players who are ideally suited to one but seriously inhibited on the other. Others thrive on both and it is these players that should be followed through the clay court season.
The clay specialists can generally be discounted on grass and those looking at the Wimbledon betting should remember this. In the men’s game this is often applies to Spanish baseliners such as Nicolas Almagro – two French Open quarter finals in the last three years but four first round exits at Wimbledon in six attempts – Tommy Robredo and, to a lesser extent, Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Nikolay Davydenko and Gael Monfils have decent French Open records that are not replicated at Wimbledon, whereas Fernando Verdasco has surprisingly not thrived at either. If he goes well at Roland Garros then he could be worth following at Wimbledon.
At the other end of this clay-grass conundrum are those who struggle on the red stuff but prosper on the faster surface. Andy Roddick and Andy Murray are big names that do better on grass. No notice should be taken of early Roland Garros exits.
Robin Soderling and Tomas Berdych have the games to thrive at both majors, as they did last year. They are short of form in 2011 but will be attractive bets to reach at least the quarter finals at Wimbledon if they find form in the clay court season.
Things are easier to read in the women’s game. The struggles of the Williams sisters in Paris prove there is a big difference for women between clay and grass but there are less clay court specialists. Francesca Schiavone and Sam Stosur, French Open finalists in 2010, both crashed out in the first round at Wimbledon a month later, but there is no reason why the Roland Garros champion cannot do well at SW19.
